A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
